A year of transition

This has been an incredibly busy time and I am really excited to see the number of first time home buyers that are out shopping. I had the privilege to attend the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board Conference last week and there was a lot of energy coming from local realtors. A great highlight was being able to hear Cameron Muir, the chief economist for the BC Real Estate Board, speak about his views for 2013. A full article I wrote can be found below but here are the highlights. There is no housing bubble and therefore we will not have a housing crash Rates will stay low for 1-2 years The U.S. will take 1-2 years to recover The European debt crisis will have minimal effect on B.C. and Canada overall The media is creating a psyche of fear - the only thing to really fear is fear itself! Prices will drop about 3.3% in 2013 and MLS sales will increase by 2.5% in the Fraser Valley The housing market is stable and interest rates will also stay stable If you are looking for some advice about getting a mortgage or about a mortgage you currently have, please contact me. My advice is free and there is no obligation! Cameron Muir - Chief Economist of the BC Real Estate Board January 31, 2013 Cameron Muir spoke at the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board conference last week and here is a summary of this thoughts on 2013 2013 will be a transition economy There are 4 reasons that 2013 will be a transition economy. The first is that the US housing market has bottomed out and we are finally seeing some modest growth in housing starts. The second reason is that the European debt crisis looks like it is going to be here for a while. Thirdly, growth in China, while still expected to be around 8%, is slowing and the so the overall global economy is looking tepid. Europe is not that big of a deal to BC's economy directly. Only 1% of our GDP relies on exports to Europe. Overall in Canada, the impact is also low as only 2.1% of national GDP comes from exports to Europe. BC's main export partner is the US where 45% of our exports go. This is down from 55%-60% in past years. The rest of our exports head to Asia primarily. 70%-75% of overall Canadian exports head to the US. It is going to take 1 -2 years for the US economy to show real signs of recovery. The media has worsened the situation by creating a psyche of fear which is delaying consumer action in the market place. Housing prices will not plummet! The only reason that would happen is because one of 3 things has occurred. A massive rate increase takes place (such as the 10% increase we saw in the early 1980's) resulting in mass foreclosures as home owners can no longer afford their homes. Mass under-employment Mass over-building creates need to for prices to drop What the media does not want to highlight is that the economic crisis of 2008-2009 was the largest crisis of its kind since the Great Depression and yet, there was no housing crisis in Canada. In fact, the housing drop has rebounded and created a buyers' market. The media also does not want to consider that the US had a major factor that the Canadian economy has not had the deal with - subprime mortgages. Mr. Muir is projecting that rates will stay low through 2013 as the Bank of Canada cannot increase rates without driving up our dollar which is already on par with the US. Bonds, however, will likely recover modestly therefore slowly increase fixed rates There is concern over the amount of debts that Canadian's carry however, Mr. Muir pointed out that debt levels in Canada are quite average. The main concern is that raising interest rates will affect consumers ability to maintain debt payments. 2013 will likely see housing prices drop by about 3.3% and this is will therefore increase unit sales by 2.5%. We did see a major rebound in 2011 and that was due primarily to high end housing sales increasing. Some speculated that this was due to foreign investment however, international buyers counted for only 1%-3% of home purchases in 2011. The main impact was international migration that came to Canada in 2006 as a part of the nation's immigration program to attract investors. This program called for applicants to invest large sums of money with the government to be held for 5 years. 2011 marked the release of millions of dollars of investments therefore spiking high end home prices. Overall, the housing market is not in crisis and rates are staying stable.